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July Newsletter 2024

 

 

     July 2, 2024

 

We Are Safe! Are You Safe?

I am a time-tested fisherman who has loved the art of fooling big Brown Trout into viciously attacking my attractive handtied dry flies, artfully presented by my twenty-yard rolling cast into a pool where my prey lies waiting for lunch. I have always been fascinated by how a clever imposter can lure such a stealthy victim into my net.

Recently, I received an email from (I was absolutely sure of) the USPS telling me that my package could not be delivered to my home due to insufficient postage. If only I could authorize a $2.00 charge on my credit card, my long-awaited package would be delivered with the next day’s mail. The email looked very official with the Post Office’s logo and colors. As I reached for my credit card, I remembered what Laura has been drilling into all of us at Intelligent Investment Management, that we need to think twice (or three times) before opening emails that are obviously PHISHING attempts to get into our bank or other financial records and steal our identity (or even our retirement savings). Thankfully, I did the right thing by deleting the imposter’s email and restarting my computer to clear out the imposter’s presence.

The Boomer generation is now squarely in the crosshairs of the “bad guys” as they tirelessly attempt to steal our life’s savings through their cleverly disguised Phishing, Vishing and Smishing  driven schemes. Your financial records and assets are “locked up tight” at Intelligent Investment Management, LLP and Charles Schwab. Teams of security experts have built cloud-based systems, installed firewalls and data encrypted your financial records.

We now must focus on YOU the client and your security options.  Are you unknowingly giving away information about your logins?

Passwords, dates of birth, Social Security and account numbers, can inadvertently be given away which can allow access to your Schwab accounts.

If in doubt about an email, phone call or text message: PLEASE CALL OUR OFFICE IMMEDIATELY. Do not click on the email, do not continue the phone call and do not reply to a text message.   These could be attempts to lure you to take the bait.

 

                                            


Here are some simple but powerful steps you can take to protect yourself and your family:

  • If you suspect that you are being hacked, the first and easiest step you can take is to disconnect; literally!! If your internet is hardwired, disconnect the cable from your computer. If you use  Wi-Fi, go to Wi-Fi in your computer settings and toggle the on to off.  This will break the connection between your information and the hacker. You will need to scan your computer for malware.
  • If you are looking for a login site, go to the official site of the company or organization and get the link there. Do not use Google or other search engines to locate logins. This prevents the use of  impostor login sites.
  • Sites which you frequent may offer multi-factor authentication, we strongly recommend you set up this option. It is simple and usually involves a code being sent to your mobile phone.
  • If you suspect or feel uncomfortable about the site you are on or the person you are talking to on the phone, it is in your best interest to leave the site or disconnect the call and then call the company or organization from their published phone number. This prevents you from talking to imposters, yet again.
  • Another simple thing to do is to utilize a password manager application, such as NordPass, 1Password or Keeper Security. These and other applications like them can help you create strong passwords for many sites, store them with encryption and share them with only those people you want to have this information.
  • Remember Wi-Fi connections in hotels and other public venues are not generally encrypted. Inquire how to pay for an upgraded connection with encryption.

Hackers can enter your life via computer, phone and all other electronic devices.  Please be careful and use common sense when “opening the door” to these people.  Laura has helped clients and co-workers trouble shoot these issues.  Please call Laura if you need assistance.  Cyber-criminals do not care who you are.  They see you as a potential way to take money, PERIOD.  We want to make sure you are safe from predators, just as we are at Intelligent Investment Management, LLP.

The aggregate managed portfolio performed well over the last twelve-month period, ended June 30, 2024. Some tempering of interest rates by the Fed and signs of some price stability, coupled with a strong labor market, indicates that the economy is on stable footing. GDP growth is still below long-term norms, but there is some “light at the end of the tunnel”. Still worrisome is the growing national debt level and enormous interest obligations, as well as the continuing geo-political turmoil and costs.

On the plus side, the AI revolution continues its surge as end-users are demanding the AI chips and the software and hardware to utilize and achieve the promised results. Our portfolio continues to benefit from all phases of the revolution and now includes both the “electrification”  and “data center” components, in addition to the chip makers, software designers, industry implementers and infrastructure pieces of the puzzle. The portfolio re-balancing efforts to get all these aspects in place has kept James and me very busy throughout the second quarter.


Laura’s Blue Line and Green Line graphics illustrate the broad portfolio components in vivid shark’s tooth fashion:

 

 

NOTE: management fees have not been deducted from this portfolio

 

In somewhat contrasting fashion, the two graphs illustrate the risk/reward tradeoff between equities (riskier 13.9% return) and income (less-risky 7.9% return).  A client with a 60/40 portfolio would have seen one-year total returns (before fees) of over 11.5 percent for the 12-month period.

 

 

NOTE: management fees have not been deducted from this portfolio

 

 

Breaking down the broad components for the category one-year results were: 

  

Looking forward, we see the second half of 2024 and into 2025 reflecting a broadening out of the equity portfolio components to benefit smaller cap positions, as well as more industrial companies as the AI surge tapers off. Of course, much depends on the actions of the Fed, as higher interest rates do impact smaller companies and REITS. Even if inflation remains slightly above the two percent target of the Fed, consumers will be in a position to maintain the spending patterns that drive company profits. And, of course, profits drive stock valuations and economic growth. If interest rates do not come down and/or geo-political concerns grow, market volatility will once again add teeth to the shark graphics.

We hope you relish in our country’s Independence Day, celebrating our freedoms and our American traditions.  We appreciate your referrals and hope you give our names out to those who could benefit from our Intelligent Investment Management philosophies.